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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

But the current competition is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and recent strugglers rising collectively. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still