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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.