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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."